Hi All,
Hope you had a great Christmas. 🙂
I’ve released a new version of the software with 4 separate systems, this relates to my previous blog post.
Now you can access the following on the drop down box that says “Systems”
The Value Tips System (Original System)
Value Tips Top 3 System
Value Handicap Top 3 System
Value Handicap System
The reason I’ve developed a new filter is so you have the option to only bet at the top of the betting market. This is good for value betting as a lot of outsiders are really badly priced and its hard to judge “value” accurately. Previously we had limited ourselves to 14/1 and under which cuts out a lot of outsiders, but with the top 3 setting you can cut further to just the top 3 horses.
We have set the default as the top3 but if you go to the settings panel you will see the following:
Here you can select whether you want to limit selections to 1,2,3,4,5 or ALL runners. Limiting to 1 will just give you selections that meet system criteria and are favourites, 2 will include top 2, 3 top 3, 4 top 4 and 5 top 5.
So why four systems?
Well the original system has been tested to work best on Non Handicaps, however Handicaps were also profitable just not as profitable on the Flat racing season. So you can use the handicap system to follow handicap races not used in the main systems. On my spot checks Value Handicap System seems to be working well, example today results below:
| Date | Horse | Venue | Time | Distance | Race Type | Num Runners | Init Odds | Cur Odds | Changes % | ||
| 30/12/2015 | Boomerang Bob | Lingfield | 14:10 | 0m6f | Hcap | 7 | 5 | 6.4 | 35 | WON | 5.4 |
| 30/12/2015 | Royalraise | Taunton | 15:25 | 2m7f | Hcap Chs | 9 | 4 | 4.9 | 30 | NR | 0 |
| 30/12/2015 | Tomkevi | Haydock | 15:35 | 2m3f | Hcap Hrd | 8 | 7 | 9.8 | 46.66667 | WON | 8.8 |
| 30/12/2015 | Go Charlie | Wolverhampton | 16:10 | 0m5f | Hcap | 10 | 6 | 8.8 | 56 | lost | -1 |
| 30/12/2015 | Hamis Al Bin | Wolverhampton | 17:10 | 0m6f | Hcap | 12 | 3 | 3.8 | 40 | WON | 2.8 |
With the other two new systems they give the Top 3, which is designed to improve your strike rate. Generally in betting 50% of all races are won by a horse in the top 3. If we can get a decent value price as one of those top 3 horses it stands to reason that we both have a good chance of winning and with the value price a good chance of winning in the long term. As with the above results, winners will fall out of the top 3, Value Handicap Top 3 System results below:
| Date | Horse | Venue | Time | Distance | Race Type | Num Runners | Init Odds | Cur Odds | Changes % | ||
| 30/12/2015 | Throthethatch | Haydock | 12:50 | 2m3f | Nov Hcap Chs | 7 | 4 | 4.9 | 30 | WON | 3.9 |
| 30/12/2015 | Les Gar Gan | Lingfield | 15:15 | 1m2f | Hcap | 12 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 44 | lost | |
| 30/12/2015 | Royalraise | Taunton | 15:25 | 2m7f | Hcap Chs | 9 | 4 | 4.9 | 30 | lost | |
| 30/12/2015 | Tidestream | Taunton | 15:55 | 2m3f | Hcap Hrd | 12 | 4 | 5.3 | 43.33333 | lost | |
| 30/12/2015 | Compton Prince | Wolverhampton | 16:40 | 0m6f | Hcap | 12 | 4 | 5 | 33.33333 | 2nd | |
| 30/12/2015 | Hamis Al Bin | Wolverhampton | 17:10 | 0m6f | Hcap | 12 | 3 | 3.8 | 40 | WON | 2.8 |
| 30/12/2015 | The Third Man | Wolverhampton | 19:10 | 1m1f | Hcap | 11 | 6 | 8.6 | 52 | ||
The top 3 for handicap still produces a profit (one race still to run), but not as great with two winners out of the top 3 missing. The top 3 also includes different selections which you may find strange, these are not in the standard handicap system as we have a default rule of only 1 selection per race, so some are discarded when you widen how many runners you are considering. You can of course untick that rule in the settings panel.
The new systems give you some alternative options, top 3 will be best for those who like the winners more frequent, while including all runners will benefit those who are waiting for the big winners to hit. Experiment with non-handicaps and handicaps. I have data to suggests non-handicaps are better in long term, but handicaps are looking strong this winter.
I hope you like the new changes to the software and wishing you all a Happy New Year!
Thanks, Steve