I’m always looking for ways to use the filters in the settings to tweak the software and increase profitability and recently I’ve noticed a few things
that seem to be happening recently.
- The Top 3 Horses tend to produce better results.
- Handicaps are performing better over jumps than they did over flat racing.
To demonstrate the trends I will include today’s results for the following settings…
Settings Used: Value Tips System, ALL RACE TYPES, ODDS LESS THAN 15, % 29 – 60, 1 Selection per Race UNTICKED).
So I have varied the standard system to include handicaps and to include multiple selections per race.
The results in red (see table below) represent horses that according to the betting market were in the top 3 horses according to odds price.
The Top 3 Horse selections produced 12 points profit today (ROI 150%)
Selections not in the top 3 produced a 2.2 point loss today
ALL selections produced a 9.8 point profit today (ROI 51.5%)
Non Handicap produced a 2.2 point profit today (ROI 55%)
Handicaps produced a 6.8 point profit today (ROI 45.3%)
- My thoughts are still that non-handicaps will have the better ROI (return on investment) over the long term. Although it is worth changing your settings on the panel
to ALL RACES to monitor handicaps over the jumps season if you are interested in betting on handicaps with the system. I know many members are already doing this who I’ve chatted with.
- I’ve also been looking at betting over odds of 14/1 and at percentage increases over 60%. I don’t think either has proven worthwhile. Reasons for this is outsiders are often badly priced up so its difficult to get any value systematically, also horses that drift a lot tend to be too good to be true in terms of the “value” of the new price. Although I do think a slight percentage increase COULD improve things (e.g. up to 65-70%). E.g. today there was a winner that beat one of our email tips that drifted at 62.5% (see below)
08/12/2015 Royal Holiday Southwell 14:00 1m0f Hcap 12 9 14 62.5 WON 13
- It is worth monitoring which of your winners are in the top 3, and this could be a good way of reducing your bets and improving your strike rate.
We are developing a new filter to allow you to specify if you want to only focus on say the top 3 of the market. This should be available next week
so you can isolate these types of bets with ease. We will list this as the “Top 3 Value Tips System”.
|Date||Horse||Venue||Time||Distance||Race Type||Num Runners||Init Odds||Cur Odds||Changes %|
|08/12/2015||Bunker Hill Lass||Southwell||13:30||0m7f||Hcap||10||7||10.5||58.33333||lost||-1|
|08/12/2015||Itshard To No||Uttoxeter||13:20||2m0f||Hcap Hrd||9||5.5||8||55.55556||lost||-1|
|08/12/2015||Tickity Bleue||Fontwell||14:40||2m1f||Hcap Hrd||9||3.5||4.4||36||lost||-1|
|08/12/2015||Dainty Diva||Fontwell||14:40||2m1f||Hcap Hrd||9||8||11.5||50||lost||-1|
|08/12/2015||Lady From Geneva||Fontwell||15:40||2m3f||Hcap Hrd||7||3.25||3.95||31.11111||lost||-1|
|08/12/2015||Road To Rome||Uttoxeter||15:20||2m0f||NHF||7||6||8.2||44||lost||-1|
|08/12/2015||Milan Bound||Uttoxeter||14:20||2m4f||Nov Hcap Chs||7||11||14.5||35||lost||-1|
|08/12/2015||Dandy Duke||Uttoxeter||14:50||2m4f||Nov Hcap Hrd||9||5.5||7||33.33333||2nd||-1|
|08/12/2015||Perfect Poison||Uttoxeter||14:50||2m4f||Nov Hcap Hrd||9||5||6.4||35||PU||-1|
|08/12/2015||Coco Shambhala||Fontwell||12:40||2m3f||Nov Hrd||9||6.5||9||45.45455||lost||-1|